Modelling the impact of vaccination and sexual behaviour adaptations on mpox cases in the USA during the 2022 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The 2022 mpox outbreak has infected over 30 000 people in the USA, with cases declining since mid-August. Infections were commonly associated with sexual contact between men. Interventions to mitigate the outbreak included vaccination and a reduction in sexual partnerships. Understanding the contributions of these interventions to decreasing cases can inform future public health efforts. METHODS: We fit a dynamic network transmission model to mpox cases reported by Washington DC through 10 January 2023. This model incorporated both vaccine administration data and reported reductions in sexual partner acquisition by gay, bisexual or other men who have sex with men (MSM). The model output consisted of daily cases over time with or without vaccination and/or behavioural adaptation. RESULTS: We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptations. One year into the outbreak, vaccination and behavioural adaptation together prevented an estimated 84% (IQR 67% to 91%) of cases. Vaccination alone averted 79% (IQR 64% to 88%) of cases and behavioural adaptation alone averted 25% (IQR 10% to 42%) of cases. We further found that in the absence of vaccination, behavioural adaptation would have reduced the number of cases, but would have prolonged the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptation, but vaccination averted more cases overall and was key to hastening outbreak conclusion. Overall, this indicates that outreach to encourage individuals to protect themselves from infection was vital in the early stages of the mpox outbreak, but that combination with a robust vaccination programme hastened outbreak conclusion.

Progress Toward Equitable Mpox Vaccination Coverage: A Shortfall Analysis - United States, May 2022-April 2023.

More than 30,000 monkeypox (mpox) cases were reported in the United States during the 2022 multinational outbreak; cases disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM). Substantial racial and ethnic disparities in incidence were also reported (1). The national mpox vaccination strategy* emphasizes that efforts to administer the JYNNEOS mpox vaccine should be focused among the populations at elevated risk for exposure to mpox (2). During May 2022-April 2023, a total of 748,329 first JYNNEOS vaccine doses (of the two recommended) were administered in the United States.† During the initial months of the outbreak, lower vaccination coverage rates among racial and ethnic minority groups were reported (1,3); however, after implementation of initiatives developed to expand access to mpox vaccination,§ coverage among racial and ethnic minority groups increased (1,4). A shortfall analysis was conducted to examine whether the increase in mpox vaccination coverage was equitable across all racial and ethnic groups (5). Shortfall was defined as the percentage of the vaccine-eligible population that did not receive the vaccine (i.e., 100% minus the percentage of the eligible population that did receive a first dose). Monthly mpox vaccination shortfalls were calculated and were stratified by race and ethnicity; monthly percent reductions in shortfall were also calculated compared with the preceding month's shortfall (6). The mpox vaccination shortfall decreased among all racial and ethnic groups during May 2022-April 2023; however, based on analysis of vaccine administration data with race and ethnicity reported, 66.0% of vaccine-eligible persons remained unvaccinated at the end of this period. The shortfall was largest among non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) (77.9%) and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) (74.5%) persons, followed by non-Hispanic White (White) (66.6%) and Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) (63.0%) persons, and was lowest among non-Hispanic Asian (Asian) (38.5%) and non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander (NH/OPI) (43.7%) persons. The largest percentage decreases in the shortfall were achieved during August (17.7%) and September (8.5%). However, during these months, smaller percentage decreases were achieved among Black persons (12.2% and 4.9%, respectively), highlighting the need for a focus on equity for the entirety of a public health response. Achieving equitable progress in JYNNEOS vaccination coverage will require substantial decreases in shortfalls among Black and AI/AN persons.

The CDC Domestic Mpox Response - United States, 2022-2023.

Monkeypox (mpox) is a serious viral zoonosis endemic in west and central Africa. An unprecedented global outbreak was first detected in May 2022. CDC activated its emergency outbreak response on May 23, 2022, and the outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on July 23, 2022, by the World Health Organization (WHO),* and a U.S. Public Health Emergency on August 4, 2022, by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.† A U.S. government response was initiated, and CDC coordinated activities with the White House, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and many other federal, state, and local partners. CDC quickly adapted surveillance systems, diagnostic tests, vaccines, therapeutics, grants, and communication systems originally developed for U.S. smallpox preparedness and other infectious diseases to fit the unique needs of the outbreak. In 1 year, more than 30,000 U.S. mpox cases were reported, more than 140,000 specimens were tested, >1.2 million doses of vaccine were administered, and more than 6,900 patients were treated with tecovirimat, an antiviral medication with activity against orthopoxviruses such as Variola virus and Monkeypox virus. Non-Hispanic Black (Black) and Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons represented 33% and 31% of mpox cases, respectively; 87% of 42 fatal cases occurred in Black persons. Sexual contact among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) was rapidly identified as the primary risk for infection, resulting in profound changes in our scientific understanding of mpox clinical presentation, pathogenesis, and transmission dynamics. This report provides an overview of the first year of the response to the U.S. mpox outbreak by CDC, reviews lessons learned to improve response and future readiness, and previews continued mpox response and prevention activities as local viral transmission continues in multiple U.S. jurisdictions (Figure).

Potential for Recurrent Mpox Outbreaks Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men - United States, 2023.

More than 30,000 monkeypox (mpox) cases have been diagnosed in the United States since May 2022, primarily among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) (1,2). In recent months, diagnoses have declined to one case per day on average. However, mpox vaccination coverage varies regionally, suggesting variable potential risk for mpox outbreak recurrence (3). CDC simulated dynamic network models representing sexual behavior among MSM to estimate the risk for and potential size of recurrent mpox outbreaks at the jurisdiction level for 2023 and to evaluate the benefits of vaccination for preparedness against mpox reintroduction. The risk for outbreak recurrence after mpox reintroduction is linearly (inversely) related to the proportion of MSM who have some form of protective immunity: the higher the population prevalence of immunity (from vaccination or natural infection), the lower the likelihood of recurrence in that jurisdiction across all immunity levels modeled. In contrast, the size of a potential recurrent outbreak might have thresholds: very small recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with mpox immunity of 50%-100%; exponentially increasing sizes of recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with 25%-50% immunity; and linearly increasing sizes of recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with <25% immunity. Among the 50 jurisdictions examined, 15 are predicted to be at minimal risk for recurrence because of their high levels of population immunity. This analysis underscores the ongoing need for accessible and sustained mpox vaccination to decrease the risk for and potential size of future mpox recurrences.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Mpox Cases and Vaccination Among Adult Males - United States, May-December 2022.

As of December 31, 2022, a total of 29,939 monkeypox (mpox) cases* had been reported in the United States, 93.3% of which occurred in adult males. During May 10-December 31, 2022, 723,112 persons in the United States received the first dose in a 2-dose mpox (JYNNEOS)† vaccination series; 89.7% of these doses were administered to males (1). The current mpox outbreak has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) and racial and ethnic minority groups (1,2). To examine racial and ethnic disparities in mpox incidence and vaccination rates, rate ratios (RRs) for incidence and vaccination rates and vaccination-to-case ratios were calculated, and trends in these measures were assessed among males aged ≥18 years (males) (3). Incidence in males in all racial and ethnic minority groups except non-Hispanic Asian (Asian) males was higher than that among non-Hispanic White (White) males. At the peak of the outbreak in August 2022, incidences among non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) and Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) males were higher than incidence among White males (RR = 6.9 and 4.1, respectively). Overall, vaccination rates were higher among males in racial and ethnic minority groups than among White males. However, the vaccination-to-case ratio was lower among Black (8.8) and Hispanic (16.2) males than among White males (42.5) during the full analytic period, indicating that vaccination rates among Black and Hispanic males were not proportionate to the elevated incidence rates (i.e., these groups had a higher unmet vaccination need). Efforts to increase vaccination among Black and Hispanic males might have resulted in the observed relative increased rates of vaccination; however, these increases were only partially successful in reducing overall incidence disparities. Continued implementation of equity-based vaccination strategies is needed to further increase vaccination rates and reduce the incidence of mpox among all racial and ethnic groups. Recent modeling data (4) showing that, based on current vaccination coverage levels, many U.S. jurisdictions are vulnerable to resurgent mpox outbreaks, underscore the need for continued vaccination efforts, particularly among racial and ethnic minority groups.

Accelerating Human Immunodeficiency Virus Self-Testing in the United States: A Call to Action.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) self-testing has emerged as a tool to increase the proportion of people to know their status. Since the first HIV self-test was approved in 2012 by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), global access to HIV self-tests has been bolstered by public-private partnerships to ensure equitable access in low- and middle-income countries. However, no company has applied for FDA clearance in a decade. We highlight the potential benefits to reclassifying HIV self-tests from class III to class II.

Reduced Risk for Mpox After Receipt of 1 or 2 Doses of JYNNEOS Vaccine Compared with Risk Among Unvaccinated Persons - 43 U.S. Jurisdictions, July 31-October 1, 2022.

As of October 28, 2022, a total of 28,244* monkeypox (mpox) cases have been reported in the United States during an outbreak that has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) (1). JYNNEOS vaccine (Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine, Bavarian Nordic), administered subcutaneously as a 2-dose (0.5 mL per dose) series (with doses administered 4 weeks apart), was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2019 to prevent smallpox and mpox disease (2); an FDA Emergency Use Authorization issued on August 9, 2022, authorized intradermal administration of 0.1 mL per dose, increasing the number of persons who could be vaccinated with the available vaccine supply† (3). A previous comparison of mpox incidence during July 31-September 3, 2022, among unvaccinated, but vaccine-eligible men aged 18-49 years and those who had received ≥1 JYNNEOS vaccine dose in 32 U.S. jurisdictions, found that incidence among unvaccinated persons was 14 times that among vaccinated persons (95% CI = 5.0-41.0) (4). During September 4-October 1, 2022, a total of 205,504 persons received JYNNEOS vaccine dose 2 in the United States.§ To further examine mpox incidence among persons who were unvaccinated and those who had received either 1 or 2 JYNNEOS doses, investigators analyzed data on 9,544 reported mpox cases among men¶ aged 18-49 years during July 31-October 1, 2022, from 43 U.S. jurisdictions,** by vaccination status. During this study period, mpox incidence (cases per 100,000 population at risk) among unvaccinated persons was 7.4 (95% CI = 6.0-9.1) times that among persons who received only 1 dose of JYNNEOS vaccine ≥14 days earlier and 9.6 (95% CI = 6.9-13.2) times that among persons who received dose 2 ≥14 days earlier. The observed distribution of subcutaneous and intradermal routes of administration of dose 1 among vaccinated persons with mpox was not different from the expected distribution. This report provides additional data suggesting JYNNEOS vaccine provides protection against mpox, irrespective of whether the vaccine is administered intradermally or subcutaneously. The degree and durability of such protection remains unclear. Persons eligible for mpox vaccination should receive the complete 2-dose series to optimize strength of protection†† (5).

Widespread Hepatitis A Outbreaks Associated with Person-to-Person Transmission - United States, 2016-2020.

Hepatitis A is a vaccine-preventable disease typically acquired through fecal-oral transmission. Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection rates in the United States declined approximately 97% during 1995-2015 after the introduction and widespread pediatric use of hepatitis A vaccines (1). Since 2016, hepatitis A outbreaks have been reported in 37 states, involving approximately 44,650 cases, 27,250 hospitalizations, and 415 deaths as of September 23, 2022 (2). A report describing early outbreaks in four states during 2017 noted that most infections occurred among persons reporting injection or noninjection drug use or experiencing homelessness; this finding signaled a shift in HAV infection epidemiology from point-source outbreaks associated with contaminated food to large community outbreaks associated with person-to-person transmission (3). CDC analyzed interim data from 33 outbreak-affected states to characterize demographic, risk factor, and clinical outcome data from 37,553 outbreak-associated hepatitis A cases reported during August 1, 2016-December 31, 2020. Among persons with available risk factor or clinical outcome information, 56% reported drug use, 14% reported experiencing homelessness, and 61% had been hospitalized; 380 outbreak-associated deaths were reported. The most effective means to prevent and control hepatitis A outbreaks is through hepatitis A vaccination, particularly for persons at increased risk for HAV infection (4). The epidemiologic shifts identified during these outbreaks led to a 2019 recommendation by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for vaccination of persons experiencing homelessness and reinforcement of existing vaccination recommendations for persons who use drugs (4). Substantial progress in the prevention and control of hepatitis A has been made; the number of outbreak-affected states has been reduced from 37 to 13 (2). Increased hepatitis A vaccination coverage, particularly through implementation of successful, nontraditional vaccination strategies among disproportionately affected populations (5), is needed to continue progress in halting current outbreaks and preventing similar outbreaks in the future.

Vital Signs: Hepatitis C Treatment Among Insured Adults - United States, 2019-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Over 2 million adults in the United States have hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and it contributes to approximately 14,000 deaths a year. Eight to 12 weeks of highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment, which can cure ≥95% of cases, is recommended for persons with hepatitis C. METHODS: Data from HealthVerity, an administrative claims and encounters database, were used to construct a cohort of adults aged 18-69 years with HCV infection diagnosed during January 30, 2019-October 31, 2020, who were continuously enrolled in insurance for ≥60 days before and ≥360 days after diagnosis (47,687). Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between initiation of DAA treatment and sex, age, race, payor, and Medicaid restriction status; adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% CIs were calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of DAA treatment initiation within 360 days of the first positive HCV RNA test result among Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurance recipients was 23%, 28%, and 35%, respectively; among those treated, 75%, 77%, and 84%, respectively, initiated treatment within 180 days of diagnosis. Adjusted odds of treatment initiation were lower among those with Medicaid (aOR = 0.54; 95% CI = 0.51-0.57) and Medicare (aOR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.56-0.68) than among those with private insurance. After adjusting for insurance type, treatment initiation was lowest among adults aged 18-29 and 30-39 years with Medicaid or private insurance, compared with those aged 50-59 years. Among Medicaid recipients, lower odds of treatment initiation were found among persons in states with Medicaid treatment restrictions (aOR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.74-0.81) than among those in states without restrictions, and among persons whose race was coded as Black or African American (Black) (aOR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.88-0.99) or other race (aOR = 0.73; 95% CI = 0.62-0.88) than those whose race was coded as White. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: Few insured persons with diagnosed hepatitis C receive timely DAA treatment, and disparities in treatment exist. Unrestricted access to timely DAA treatment is critical to reducing viral hepatitis-related mortality, disparities, and transmission. Treatment saves lives, prevents transmission, and is cost saving.

Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets.

BACKGROUND: A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met. METHODS: We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030. RESULTS: With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Opening Editorial AIDS and Behavior Special Issue on Stigma.

The papers in this Special Supplement provide insight into current research on and partnerships needed to address HIV-related stigma and better characterize the negative effects of HIV-related stigma on populations disproportionately affected by HIV in the United States. The findings may be used to inform evidence-based strategies and ideally additional interventional research with the goal of reducing stigma, new HIV infections, and improved health for persons with HIV.

Vital Signs: HIV Infection, Diagnosis, Treatment, and Prevention Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men - United States, 2010-2019.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) accounted for two thirds of new HIV infections in the United States in 2019 despite representing approximately 2% of the adult population. METHODS: CDC analyzed surveillance data to determine trends in estimated new HIV infections and to assess measures of undiagnosed infection and HIV prevention and treatment services including HIV testing, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, and viral suppression, as well as HIV-related stigma. RESULTS: The estimated number of new HIV infections among MSM was 25,100 in 2010 and 23,100 in 2019. New infections decreased significantly among White MSM but did not decrease among Black or African American (Black) MSM and Hispanic/Latino MSM. New infections increased among MSM aged 25-34 years. During 2019, approximately 83% of Black MSM and 80% of Hispanic/Latino MSM compared with 90% of White MSM with HIV had received an HIV diagnosis. The lowest percentage of diagnosed infection was among MSM aged 13-24 years (55%). Among MSM with a likely PrEP indication, discussions about PrEP with a provider and PrEP use were lower among Black MSM (47% and 27%, respectively) and Hispanic/Latino MSM (45% and 31%) than among White MSM (59% and 42%). Among MSM with an HIV diagnosis, adherence to ART and viral suppression were lower among Black MSM (48% and 62%, respectively) and Hispanic/Latino MSM (59% and 67%) compared with White MSM (64% and 74%). Experiences of HIV-related stigma among those with an HIV diagnosis were higher among Black MSM (median = 33; scale = 0-100) and Hispanic/Latino MSM (32) compared with White MSM (26). MSM aged 18-24 years had the lowest adherence to ART (45%) and the highest median stigma score (39). CONCLUSION: Improving access to and use of HIV services for MSM, especially Black MSM, Hispanic/Latino MSM, and younger MSM, and addressing social determinants of health, such as HIV-related stigma, that contribute to unequal outcomes will be essential to end the HIV epidemic in the United States.

Estimated Annual Number of HIV Infections ─ United States, 1981-2019.

The first cases of Pneumocystis carinii (jirovecii) pneumonia among young men, which were subsequently linked to HIV infection, were reported in the MMWR on June 5, 1981 (1). At year-end 2019, an estimated 1.2 million persons in the United States were living with HIV infection (2). Using data reported to the National HIV Surveillance System, CDC estimated the annual number of new HIV infections (incidence) among persons aged ≥13 years in the United States during 1981-2019. Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 20,000 infections in 1981 to a peak of 130,400 infections in 1984 and 1985. Incidence was relatively stable during 1991-2007, with approximately 50,000-58,000 infections annually, and then decreased in recent years to 34,800 infections in 2019. The majority of infections continue to be attributable to male-to-male sexual contact (63% in 1981 and 66% in 2019). Over time, the proportion of HIV infections has increased among Black/African American (Black) persons (from 29% in 1981 to 41% in 2019) and among Hispanic/Latino persons (from 16% in 1981 to 29% in 2019). Despite the lack of a cure or a vaccine, today's HIV prevention tools, including HIV testing, prompt and sustained treatment, preexposure prophylaxis, and comprehensive syringe service programs, provide an opportunity to substantially decrease new HIV infections. Intensifying efforts to implement these strategies equitably could accelerate declines in HIV transmission, morbidity, and mortality and reduce disparities.

Decreases in Hepatitis C Testing and Treatment During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare services, reducing opportunities to conduct routine hepatitis C virus antibody screening, clinical care, and treatment. Therefore, people living with undiagnosed hepatitis C virus during the pandemic may later become identified at more advanced stages of the disease, leading to higher morbidity and mortality rates. Further, unidentified hepatitis C virus-infected individuals may continue to unknowingly transmit the virus to others. METHODS: To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, data were evaluated from a large national reference clinical laboratory and from national estimates of dispensed prescriptions for hepatitis C virus treatment. Investigators estimated the average number of hepatitis C virus antibody tests, hepatitis C virus antibody-positive test results, and hepatitis C virus RNA-positive test results by month in January-July for 2018 and 2019, compared with the same months in 2020. To assess the impact of hepatitis C virus treatment, dispensed hepatitis C virus direct-acting antiretroviral medications were examined for the same time periods. Statistical analyses of trends were performed using negative binomial models. RESULTS: Compared with the 2018 and 2019 months, hepatitis C virus antibody testing volume decreased 59% during April 2020 and rebounded to a 6% reduction in July 2020. The number of hepatitis C virus RNA-positive results fell by 62% in March 2020 and remained 39% below the baseline by July 2020. For hepatitis C virus treatment, prescriptions decreased 43% in May, 37% in June, and 38% in July relative to the corresponding months in 2018 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, continued public health messaging, interventions and outreach programs to restore hepatitis C virus testing and treatment to prepandemic levels, and maintenance of public health efforts to eliminate hepatitis C infections remain important.

State-level prevalence estimates of latent tuberculosis infection in the United States by medical risk factors, demographic characteristics and nativity.

INTRODUCTION: Preventing tuberculosis (TB) disease requires treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI) as well as prevention of person-to-person transmission. We estimated the LTBI prevalence for the entire United States and for each state by medical risk factors, age, and race/ethnicity, both in the total population and stratified by nativity. METHODS: We created a mathematical model using all incident TB disease cases during 2013-2017 reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System that were classified using genotype-based methods or imputation as not attributed to recent TB transmission. Using the annual average number of TB cases among US-born and non-US-born persons by medical risk factor, age group, and race/ethnicity, we applied population-specific reactivation rates (and corresponding 95% confidence intervals [CI]) to back-calculate the estimated prevalence of untreated LTBI in each population for the United States and for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2015. RESULTS: We estimated that 2.7% (CI: 2.6%-2.8%) of the U.S. population, or 8.6 (CI: 8.3-8.8) million people, were living with LTBI in 2015. Estimated LTBI prevalence among US-born persons was 1.0% (CI: 1.0%-1.1%) and among non-US-born persons was 13.9% (CI: 13.5%-14.3%). Among US-born persons, the highest LTBI prevalence was in persons aged ≥65 years (2.1%) and in persons of non-Hispanic Black race/ethnicity (3.1%). Among non-US-born persons, the highest LTBI prevalence was estimated in persons aged 45-64 years (16.3%) and persons of Asian and other racial/ethnic groups (19.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our estimations of the prevalence of LTBI by medical risk factors and demographic characteristics for each state could facilitate planning for testing and treatment interventions to eliminate TB in the United States. Our back-calculation method feasibly estimates untreated LTBI prevalence and can be updated using future TB disease case counts at the state or national level.

The Potential Epidemiological Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic and the Cost-effectiveness of Linked, Opt-out HIV Testing: A Modeling Study in 6 US Cities.

BACKGROUND: Widespread viral and serological testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may present a unique opportunity to also test for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We estimated the potential impact of adding linked, opt-out HIV testing alongside SARS-CoV-2 testing on the HIV incidence and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in 6 US cities. METHODS: Using a previously calibrated dynamic HIV transmission model, we constructed 3 sets of scenarios for each city: (1) sustained current levels of HIV-related treatment and prevention services (status quo); (2) temporary disruptions in health services and changes in sexual and injection risk behaviors at discrete levels between 0%-50%; and (3) linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing offered to 10%-90% of the adult population in addition to Scenario 2. We estimated the cumulative number of HIV infections between 2020-2025 and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of linked HIV testing over 20 years. RESULTS: In the absence of linked, opt-out HIV testing, we estimated a total of a 16.5% decrease in HIV infections between 2020-2025 in the best-case scenario (50% reduction in risk behaviors and no service disruptions), and a 9.0% increase in the worst-case scenario (no behavioral change and 50% reduction in service access). We estimated that HIV testing (offered at 10%-90% levels) could avert a total of 576-7225 (1.6%-17.2%) new infections. The intervention would require an initial investment of $20.6M-$220.7M across cities; however, the intervention would ultimately result in savings in health-care costs in each city. CONCLUSIONS: A campaign in which HIV testing is linked with SARS-CoV-2 testing could substantially reduce the HIV incidence and reduce direct and indirect health care costs attributable to HIV.